Stocks are down. Bonds are down. Inflation is up. There is a war in Europe. When nothing feels certain, what should investors do? One of the things we can do is pay attention to something else.
For weeks, the major indices had been declining but in mid-March, we saw a very abrupt reversal. I’m often reminded of the familiar saying “Investors must be present to win.” In other words, the price (or cost) of admission to the investment experience is market volatility.
The month of January was marked by negative returns for global stock markets. But, as the well-worn phrase, “Is your glass half full or half empty?” implies, our view of, or the way we feel about the state of markets as investors, may be more related to our personal dispositions than what the numbers indicate.
Market declines are never enjoyable in the moment. But these kinds of intra-year pull backs are normal when looking at market history.
Barbells work great at the gym because they put weight on a bar in such a way that it’s balanced, leaving room in the middle for someone to use it to workout. We often see portfolios that are designed like a barbell at the gym: lots of risk in one account and lots of cash or very short-term securities in another. In aggregate, it might produce some balance, but the reality is that it can create some real challenges.
By the time you read this, you will have most likely forgotten today. My guess is that you won’t remember what went on this day. You might remember a feeling or thought you had when you heard what was happening in the stock market. But then, you sent an email, mowed your lawn, took your dog on a walk and ate something healthy, like broccoli, for dinner.
Investors have been experiencing some fear of heights recently. Many stocks and stock markets are at or near all-time highs. So, here’s the question investors need to ask themselves today, ”Do you think that stock markets 26 years from now will be higher or lower than they are currently, even if today is an all-time high?”
Don’t believe the lie that you don’t belong or that the keys belong to someone who won’t give them to you.
On March 23, 2020, the S&P 500 tumbled another 3%, culminating a near 34% drop over that same month. The Dow Jones hovered around 19,000. Gains from the past few years were gone.
