2020: A Predictor’s Kryptonite
At the end of 2019, Foster Group’s Investment Strategy Group wanted to create an object lesson to illustrate how hard it is to predict what will happen in financial markets and the world in general.
At the end of 2019, Foster Group’s Investment Strategy Group wanted to create an object lesson to illustrate how hard it is to predict what will happen in financial markets and the world in general.
Since we were unable to answer all of the questions asked during the live webinar, we'd like to share some of the questions and answers in written form.
Aside from COVID-19, what represents the biggest risk for investors in the second half of what is turning out to be a historic 2020?
Unprecedented! That word had been used ad nauseam in 2020.
Many of my favorite content pieces from 2020 reflect on the themes of uncertainty, risk, change, and remaining optimistic in the face of unsettling circumstances.
In the three months since Joe Biden was elected President of the United States, small company stocks have risen more than 30%. Four years ago, Donald Trump was elected President of the United States and small company stocks went up almost 20% in the twenty-six days surrounding the election, from November 3rd to December 9th. Do small company stock investors just like new Presidents?
As we’ll see, each of these are real risks, because if they are unmanaged or unanticipated, they may cause investors to focus on the wrong things at the wrong times and lead to actions that may sabotage goals and portfolios.
Right after, “What will the stock market do next?” the positioning question may be the most asked and re-asked question by investors of all types.
Educated optimism is an antidote for anxious uncertainty, and it can be of great help in enabling investors to embrace the uncertainty that is with us all the time.
Has Artificial Intelligence been causing you anxiety, or made you wonder about the trustworthiness of investment markets? Be reminded that “educated optimism is an antidote for anxious uncertainty”.
We believe that investors increase their chances of success by avoiding predictable mistakes, those practices that sound like they should work but have been shown time and again to have very low probabilities of success.
Kent Kramer examines the effects of an election season on investors. Drawing on historical data and behavioral economics, he emphasizes the importance of recognizing cognitive biases and staying optimistic.
Merriam Webster defines a benchmark as “something that serves as a standard by which others may be measured or judged”. For investors, the question to ask is what should be my standard, my benchmark, in determining the success or failure of my overall investment portfolio?
Inflation has been one of the buzzwords in the news media for the past couple of years. Let's explore if it is good or bad and what can you do about it.
How do tariffs impact your investment portfolio? Kent Kramer takes a look at the latest tariff policies, market volatility, and why diversification is key to managing uncertainty.
Market periods like these have a way of making virtually everyone ask the questions, "Am I okay? Is my financial plan going to survive these latest seismic events?" Kent Kramer looks at historical worst-case scenarios and how they could be used to inform your financial plan.
Kent Kramer tackles the question, 'Is it different this time?' by analyzing what’s different and what's the same in market downturns. He discusses historical market declines, the catalysts behind them, and the importance of maintaining long-term optimism despite short-term volatility.
A Q&A with Senior Lead Advisor, Phil Kruzan.