The Challenge of Entering a Bull Market
A Q&A with Senior Lead Advisor, Phil Kruzan.
A Q&A with Senior Lead Advisor, Phil Kruzan.
Imagine that you fell asleep at the beginning of the year and woke up at the end of 2020. When you wake up, there are some things that would immediately feel different.
Many of my favorite content pieces from 2020 reflect on the themes of uncertainty, risk, change, and remaining optimistic in the face of unsettling circumstances.
In the three months since Joe Biden was elected President of the United States, small company stocks have risen more than 30%. Four years ago, Donald Trump was elected President of the United States and small company stocks went up almost 20% in the twenty-six days surrounding the election, from November 3rd to December 9th. Do small company stock investors just like new Presidents?
On March 23, 2020, the S&P 500 tumbled another 3%, culminating a near 34% drop over that same month. The Dow Jones hovered around 19,000. Gains from the past few years were gone.
One of the primary roles we play as financial advisors is to help our clients remember to take the long-view.
Don’t believe the lie that you don’t belong or that the keys belong to someone who won’t give them to you.
As we’ll see, each of these are real risks, because if they are unmanaged or unanticipated, they may cause investors to focus on the wrong things at the wrong times and lead to actions that may sabotage goals and portfolios.
Investors have been experiencing some fear of heights recently. Many stocks and stock markets are at or near all-time highs. So, here’s the question investors need to ask themselves today, ”Do you think that stock markets 26 years from now will be higher or lower than they are currently, even if today is an all-time high?”
Don’t believe the lie that you don’t belong or that the keys belong to someone who won’t give them to you.
As we’ll see, each of these are real risks, because if they are unmanaged or unanticipated, they may cause investors to focus on the wrong things at the wrong times and lead to actions that may sabotage goals and portfolios.
Investors have been experiencing some fear of heights recently. Many stocks and stock markets are at or near all-time highs. So, here’s the question investors need to ask themselves today, ”Do you think that stock markets 26 years from now will be higher or lower than they are currently, even if today is an all-time high?”
If an investor could discover the true worth of a company, a piece of real estate or even an idea, where “true worth” equated to the future value or price that others would pay, success would be almost certain to follow. Those opportunities that were priced significantly lower than the future value would be automatic buys. The one’s with higher prices today than the future price would be ones to avoid. If only it were that simple!
For 12 seconds, consider what a company knows about you and their own profitability if they are willing to offer you a $500 risk-free bet to get started. That’s what DraftKings just promised me in a commercial. Sounds awesome, doesn’t it? OK, the 12 seconds are up. What did you come up with?
You do not need to pick the next big winner in order to have a successful investment experience. As a matter of fact, behaving as if this were possible is an almost certain way to have a terrible investment experience. What are the hallmarks of a more successful approach?
Index funds are popular investment tools for good reason. They are low cost, effective ways to capture market return. Choosing to use index funds is only half the battle though; you must use them correctly to truly benefit.
For weeks, the major indices had been declining but in mid-March, we saw a very abrupt reversal. I’m often reminded of the familiar saying “Investors must be present to win.” In other words, the price (or cost) of admission to the investment experience is market volatility.
Recently, I received a gift from the Iowa State Patrol in the form of a speeding ticket. In reflecting on this experience, it occurred to me that I took an unnecessary risk to attain something I didn’t need and ended up sacrificing money I didn’t have to lose.
When the going is good, we’re not all that concerned with asking or answering the question. It is when the going gets tough, like right now, that we find ourselves more interested in asking. So, “What should we do?”
What caused the stock market to rise by over 20% in the second quarter of 2020 even as the COVID pandemic was out of control? How about the over 11% rise in the fourth quarter of 2021 as inflation ticked up and the Fed was warning of rate increases? It seems a little more obvious why the US stock market has fallen in the first 6 months of 2022, but should it have fallen more…or less?
Plenty of arguments exist as to why we will be and/or already are in a recession. However, there is good news out there that isn’t readily reported.