Thinking About Stock Market Volatility

What caused the stock market to rise by over 20% in the second quarter of 2020 even as the COVID pandemic was out of control? How about the over 11% rise in the fourth quarter of 2021 as inflation ticked up and the Fed was warning of rate increases? It seems a little more obvious why the US stock market has fallen in the first 6 months of 2022, but should it have fallen more…or less?

Predictable Mistakes

We believe that investors increase their chances of success by avoiding predictable mistakes, those practices that sound like they should work but have been shown time and again to have very low probabilities of success.