2020: A Predictor’s Kryptonite
At the end of 2019, Foster Group’s Investment Strategy Group wanted to create an object lesson to illustrate how hard it is to predict what will happen in financial markets and the world in general.
At the end of 2019, Foster Group’s Investment Strategy Group wanted to create an object lesson to illustrate how hard it is to predict what will happen in financial markets and the world in general.
Since we were unable to answer all of the questions asked during the live webinar, we'd like to share some of the questions and answers in written form.
Aside from COVID-19, what represents the biggest risk for investors in the second half of what is turning out to be a historic 2020?
Unprecedented! That word had been used ad nauseam in 2020.
Many of my favorite content pieces from 2020 reflect on the themes of uncertainty, risk, change, and remaining optimistic in the face of unsettling circumstances.
In the three months since Joe Biden was elected President of the United States, small company stocks have risen more than 30%. Four years ago, Donald Trump was elected President of the United States and small company stocks went up almost 20% in the twenty-six days surrounding the election, from November 3rd to December 9th. Do small company stock investors just like new Presidents?
As we’ll see, each of these are real risks, because if they are unmanaged or unanticipated, they may cause investors to focus on the wrong things at the wrong times and lead to actions that may sabotage goals and portfolios.
The month of January was marked by negative returns for global stock markets. But, as the well-worn phrase, “Is your glass half full or half empty?” implies, our view of, or the way we feel about the state of markets as investors, may be more related to our personal dispositions than what the numbers indicate.
Right after, “What will the stock market do next?” the positioning question may be the most asked and re-asked question by investors of all types.
Educated optimism is an antidote for anxious uncertainty, and it can be of great help in enabling investors to embrace the uncertainty that is with us all the time.
Has Artificial Intelligence has been causing you anxiety, or made you wonder about the trustworthiness of investment markets? Be reminded that “educated optimism is an antidote for anxious uncertainty”.
A Q&A with Senior Lead Advisor, Phil Kruzan.
Will cryptocurrency replace the $20 bill in your pocket? Will the decentralization/digitization of currency end up solving anything? Will it be of long-term value? Or will it end up being only a place for speculators to try and capitalize on the sentiment of others? Anyone wanting to allocate to cryptocurrency should understand the inherent uncertainty and volatility of this relatively new digital commodity.
In recent weeks, China has been a part of US financial headlines for a number of reasons. At Foster Group, we believe in globally diversified model portfolios. We invest our equity portfolios across domestic markets, international markets, and emerging markets. Our models have equity exposure to over 51 countries.